The A’s Marcus Semien Conundrum
All signs point to a hideous offseason, the likes of which modern sports(particularly baseball) have never seen. The main culprit, of course, is the inescapably oppressive pandemic which cut 2020 ticket revenues to zero. Further exacerbating the issue is the clarity we have in regards to the 2021 season; you might as well roll a pair of dice to determine how many games will be played, whether or not you’ll be able to go to game, as well as if NL pitchers will make their way back to the batters box.
In this terrible context the Oakland Athletics have the free agency of Marcus Semien on their hands, which warrants a franchise altering decision: pay the shortstop more or at least as much as other teams will offer, or not. One consideration in all of this, unfortunately for Semien, is the depression of the market. We have already seen Cleveland decline their 10 million option on Brad Hand, one of the most effective relievers in the game with a proven track record, and no other club pick him up. Hand threw 22 innings in 2020 with a 2.05 ERA, 1.37 FIP, and amassed 1.1 WAR, per fangraphs. For context, Kenley Jansen who per Sportrac is set to earn 20 million next year in the last year of a 5-year deal signed in 2017, threw 24.1 innings with a 3.33 ERA and amassed 0.5 WAR. Furthermore, Dellin Betances has a 6 million player option for 2021 after signing a 1-year deal for 10.5 million a year ago. His WAR was zero and his ERA 7.71 across 11 ⅔ innings in 2020. Notably, Marcus is not a relief pitcher, but my point is this: the market this offseason will be anything but fair to the player.
It would take, in my humble estimation, an entire evening of convincing to find a fanbase more calloused than Oakland’s when it comes to free agency. Cleveland comes to mind (but LeBron did come back and delivered a title, so there). The last twenty years have seen plenty of gut wrenching exits with players ditching the home clubhouse at the coli for greener pastures. That aside, what type of deal would be wise for Oakland?
We’ve seen an example of the two year deal, recently, with the much clamoured for extension of Khris Davis and while I was certainly excited, happy, and proud of the commitment from the organization all at once; how has that worked out? I think you know the answer.
Davis since signing the 2 year 33.5 million deal has amassed -1.3 WAR in ’19 and ’20 combined, per Fangraphs. His average exit velocity has tumbled precipitously from 2018–2020, producing readings of 92.5, 90.2, and 87.7, respectively. The hip injury after colliding with the wall in Pittsburgh in early 2019 has obviously been a huge factor in this but the results cannot be overlooked, a WRC+ of 81 in both 2019 and 2020 is simply not good from your DH(and once prodigious power hitter). The struggling slugger lost his job in the shortened season and aside from the relatively huge (and feel good) homers in the postseason, it has been an awful stretch for Davis since signing the deal. His future role with the club is murky at best, with speculation of the weak side of a DH platoon seeming realistic for the clubs highest paid player.
Another option, which would obviously be more ideal for Marcus as a shortstop entering his age 30 season, would be a longer term deal. This option seems unlikely given the cash strapped nature of the organization, as well as the current regime’s 20+ year track record (they won’t). For context, and posterity, the only comparable my racked brain can muster is Eric Chavez. The A’s gave the Gold Glove 3rd baseman 66 million over 6 years in 2005, per Spotrac. All one has to look at on the old career stats page is the games played after that deal. It resembles a stock market after a failed vaccine trial. It tumbled. He was hurt, alot, and did not amass more than 1 Win Above Replacement after 2006 until 2012 with the Yankees when he also played more games than he had since, you guessed it 2006. Safe to say that was not money well spent.
Have the A’s just had awful injury luck with the guys they do decide to keep? Do the guys they trade before they aren’t retained in free agency automatically become MVP frontrunners? None of this seems to add clarity to the Marcus conundrum.
A look at Semien’s performance in Oakland does little to settle the muddy waters. A wrist injury and subsequent surgery in 2017 sapped his power as he hit only 15 homers in 2018. That was of course followed by a glorious 2019 campaign in which he played 162 games, slashed .285/.369/.522, and finished 3rd in the AL MVP race (and the A’s didn’t even trade him the year before!). Was that the new baseline for Marcus? Or a loud outlier in his career? Baseball, with the A’s being first in line, would love to know.
In search of more recent evidence we turn to the 2020 season, which I’ve heard from many esteemed analysts, was not normal. Take from it what you will but it was safe to say that Semien did not look great, aside from in the postseason. The playoffs were a different story (aside from the costly error in the ALDS) were he slashed .407/.484/.667 across the A’s glorious 7 game run. One thing to say about Semien though, which is sure to curb any front office’s enthusiasm, is that he did not hit the ball hard in 2020. His Baseball Savant page puts the viewer in danger of hypothermia. Per the site, his Exit Velo and Hard Hit % rank in the 12th and 9th percentile respectively, also known as poor. His barrel rate is slightly better but not good in the 27th percentile.Who does the site list as a similar batter profile for the year: Robbie Grossman (should we give him 4 years or 6?).
The Marcus conundrum is not a simple one. He is a leader of the team, a hometown player, a kind of iron man, a fan favorite(of an angry fanbase), and possibly over-buoyed in value by one really good season. What do I think is the solution? Take advantage of the market and give Semien a one year prove it deal. He really didn’t play well this past year and it appears very difficult to assess what his next few years will look like production wise. Granted, this may not be the best option for him considering the projected free agent class at short next offseason. However, a stronger showing across a longer season could put him in a position for a bigger, more long term deal next offseason. A one-year deal now will, hopefully, provide a bridge until Nick Allen can, again hopefully, get some at bats above high A ball, assuming there is a minor league season (hopefully, hopefully, hopefully). According to the organization Allen’s defense is big league ready but the bat is probably (definitely) not.
Time will tell what will happen in these unprecedented times but I am certainly not ready to see Marcus Semien in another uniform. The A’s have a shot (again) at being legit title contenders and that shot is certainly not strengthened with Marcus on another team.
